Less than a week until the NFL draft, the first round looks the same as it did the day after the Super Bowl. None of the 32 picks have been traded. Not to move up. Not to move down. Not to acquire another team鈥檚 disgruntled veteran.
What gives? Three theories:
- The lack of marquee quarterbacks in this draft has negated early April trades and should deter teams from trying to move up Thursday night.
- Teams have no interest trading a first-round pick (sometimes two) for a veteran player.
- A position of strength in the draft might meet a position of need for teams, so they might as well stay put to see how the board falls.
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Since 2015, an average of 5.5 first-round picks have been traded before the draft and a total average of 12.2 first-round selections have been moved. The breakdown (not including picks that were traded multiple times):
2015: Two predraft, six total.
2016: Five predraft, 12 total.
2017: Four predraft, 12 total.
2018: Seven predraft, 16 total.
2019: Four predraft, 12 total.
2020: Six predraft, 11 total.
2021: Six predraft, 10 total.
2022: Eleven predraft, 18 total.
2023: Seven predraft, 15 total.
2024: Three predraft, 10 total.
The 10-year average: 5.5 predraft, 12.2 total.
Another factor after using the terrific website Pro Sports Transactions to research this topic is the predraft trades haven鈥檛 really worked out.
Veterans in the last 10 years who have been traded for at least two first-round picks are edge rusher Khalil Mack, cornerback Jalen Ramsey, wide receiver Davante Adams and quarterbacks Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford and Deshaun Watson.
Mack, Ramsey and Adams were later traded, Wilson was cut after two years with Denver, Watson (three first-round picks) has been one of the colossal swing-and-misses in league history and Stafford won a Super Bowl.
Additionally, teams that have given up first-round picks to move up have also struck out, led by San Francisco (Trey Lance) and Chicago (Justin Fields). A verdict isn鈥檛 yet in on Carolina鈥檚 Bryce Young. The Los Angeles Rams gave up two firsts to Tennessee to move up for quarterback Jared Goff and reached the Super Bowl.
Sometimes, staying put is the best course for teams. Don鈥檛 overthink it and either take the best available player or a player who fills a need. This could be one of those drafts.
Quick kicks
1. Trade-down partner. Might Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane get a call from a former lieutenant, New York Giants GM Joe Schoen, late in Thursday night鈥檚 first round? If the Giants draft Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter third overall, their pass rush will get better, but it won鈥檛 help their quarterback-of-the-future plan.
The Giants could be keen on trading up from No. 34 for quarterbacks Jaxson Dart (Mississippi) or Tyler Shough (Louisville). They could offer the Bills a second-round pick (No. 34) and a third-round pick (No. 99) for No. 30.
The Giants might consider trading up from their pick at No. 34 overall for Mississippi quarterback Jaxson Dart.
Via an online trade value chart, the 30th pick is valued at 620 points in return for picks valued at 560 points (No. 34) and 104 points (No. 99), for a total of 664 points. This would give the Bills a third-round pick (they currently have none) and allow the Giants to have the fifth-year option for their new quarterback.
2. Local pro day. Last week, the Bills hosted a pro day for area and regional college players. At this event, the NFL allows teams to put players through drills and testing. That is not allowed during a player鈥檚 top-30 visit (those workouts must be on the prospect鈥檚 campus).
鈥淚 think it was first class,鈥 said University at Buffalo coach Pete Lembo, who observed the event. 鈥淚鈥檓 not surprised, because everybody I鈥檝e met with the Bills鈥 organization has been very similar to the people you meet in Western New York 鈥 just genuine, very invested in the community 鈥 and one of the great things was talking to coach (Sean) McDermott, Brandon Beane and (assistant general manager) Brian Gaine about different ways we can look to partner in the future and promote football in Western New York.鈥
3. Confusing Miami. The Dolphins鈥 plan continues to be confusing to figure out. In September, they signed cornerback Ramsey to a three-year, $72.1 million extension, including $29.2 million guaranteed. It decreased his 2025 cap hit by $9.5 million, according to the industry website Over The Cap.
But this week, the Dolphins conceded they are looking to trade Ramsey. Why wait until this late in the offseason? They paid Ramsey a $4 million roster bonus March 16. If they find a taker, the Dolphins will have a $25.213 million 鈥渄ead鈥 cap hit; after June 1, it can be divided into $6.745 million this year and $18.468 million in 2026.
4. Move-down candidates. Keep an eye on four teams that should consider moving down 鈥 Atlanta at No. 15 has only five picks (two of the top 117); Cincinnati at No. 17 has six picks (three of the top 118); Minnesota at No. 24 has four picks (two of the top 138); and Washington at No. 29 has five picks (two of the top 127).
5. Extra points. New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels on receiver Stefon Diggs: 鈥淪tef is a unique individual (and) a unique player. He鈥檚 got a really good skill set and has been a very productive player for a long time.鈥 鈥 Former Bills receiver Lee Evans 鈥 a 2004 first-round pick 鈥 will be on-site next Friday night in Green Bay, Wisc., to announce the team鈥檚 second- and/or third-round selections. Evans played collegiately at Wisconsin. 鈥 UB鈥檚 Lembo said he continues to receive phone calls and texts from NFL teams about linebacker Shaun Dolac.
