From 2016-23, an average of 6.6 teams reached the NFL playoffs a year after failing to qualify, including four seasons of seven teams. Parity and upheaval were the norm.
But last year, only four of the 14 teams were new playoff participants (Denver, the Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota and Washington). Only the Commanders advanced, winning two games before losing to Philadelphia in the NFC title game.
What about this year?
A month before training camp, I see the Bills, Kansas City and Baltimore in the AFC and Philadelphia, Washington and Detroit in the NFC as playoff locks. That leaves eight spots for the other 26 teams.
My list of nonplayoff teams who could reach postseason this year (in order or probability):
Cincinnati (9-8 last year): Bengals coach Zac Taylor has been loath to play his starters at all in the preseason, but he should reconsider this August to avoid a fourth consecutive lousy start (0-2, 0-2 and 0-3). Enough is enough, Zac. The old way is broken. The key for the Bengals will be improving on defense. New coordinator Al Golden, hired away from Notre Dame, inherits a group that allowed 25.5 points per game (seventh most). Cincinnati will challenge Baltimore for the AFC North title.
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Moments after injuring his knee, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey intentionally slid to the ground last December against the Buffalo Bills. He would miss the rest of the season.
San Francisco (6-11): The 49ers were decimated by injuries last year to quarterback Brock Purdy, running back Christian McCaffrey and receiver Brandon Aiyuk, among others. Coach Kyle Shanahan has started over on defense, bringing back coordinator Robert Saleh. I expect the 49ers to bounce back if their defense – which could have four draft picks playing regular roles – jells quickly.
Atlanta (8-9): Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is the full-time starter, having replaced Kirk Cousins late last season. The Falcons need to survive their first six games – vs. Tampa Bay, at Minnesota, at Carolina, vs. Washington, vs. the Bills and at San Francisco – to attempt to overtake the Buccaneers in the NFC South. The Falcons loaded up on defense in free agency and the draft, adding pass rusher Leonard Floyd, linebacker Divine Deablo and first-round picks Jalon Walker and James Pearce. They should contend for a wild-card spot.
Seattle (10-7): The Seahawks were the only team last year to win at least 10 games and not qualify, and they responded by firing offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb (replaced by Klint Kubiak) and trading quarterback Geno Smith to Las Vegas (replaced by Sam Darnold) and receiver DK Metcalf to Pittsburgh. I put them on the list because of last year’s record, but this is a third-place NFC West team.
Chicago (5-12): New coach Ben Johnson is one of the game’s best offensive strategists, and the Bears emphasized offense in the offseason – they could have as many as five new starters, including three linemen. If the Bears can block better (quarterback Caleb Williams was sacked 68 times as a rookie), they should challenge Minnesota for second place in the NFC North.
Jacksonville (4-13): Somebody has to win the AFC South, and there is nothing to like about what Houston did in the offseason to help quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Jaguars might have a 50% turnover on their initial 53-man roster; they traded up for receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter; and they upgraded at play-caller (Press Taylor to new coach Liam Coen). Only three of the Jaguars’ final 10 games are against 2024 playoff teams.
Quick kicks
1. Camp schedule. The Bills’ full roster will report to St. John Fisher University in Pittsford for training camp July 22, starting the five-day acclimation period mandated by the collective bargaining agreement. Day 1 is physicals and meetings. Days 2-3 (open practices July 23-24) are OTA-type workouts (no pads/contact), followed by Day 4 (open practice July 25 in shells) and Day 5 (the Bills are off). By my math, that puts July 27 as the first allowed practice in full pads.
2. Bucking trend. The Bills will be one of only three teams to go away for training camp (83 miles from Orchard Park to Pittsford). The Kansas City Chiefs train in St. Joseph, Missouri (65 miles from Arrowhead Stadium), and the Dallas Cowboys train in Oxnard, California (1,481 miles from their headquarters in Frisco, Texas). The Indianapolis Colts will train in Westfield, Indiana, 20 miles from their facility, so I’m not counting them. In 2002, just 10 teams stayed home for camp, but that number doubled by 2013 and jumped to 26 in 2022. Why? Costs, of course, but most teams now figure the comforts of their full-time facility outweigh hitting the road.
3. Extra points. ESPN’s Aaron Schatz unveiled his All-Quarter Century Team this week, and the only Bills representative was receiver Terrell Owens (2009). Former Bills coach/assistant Wade Phillips was recognized in the defensive coordinator category for his work with Denver (Super Bowl in 2015) and the Los Angeles Rams (NFC title in 2018). … The Bills’ rookies will report to Orchard Park on July 16 for a week of work before joining the veterans in Pittsford. … The stare-down on guaranteed money between clubs and second-round draft picks continued this week. As of Friday morning, 30 of the 32 selections remained unsigned, including the Bills’ T.J. Sanders.
