NEW YORK — The world's richest man could lose billions in his fight with world's most powerful politician.
The feud between Elon Musk and Donald Trump could mean Tesla's plans for self-driving cars hit a roadblock, SpaceX flies fewer missions for NASA, Starlink gets fewer overseas satellite contracts and the social media platform X loses advertisers.
It all depends on Trump's appetite for revenge and how the dispute unfolds.
Joked Telemetry Insight auto analyst Sam Abuelsamid, "Since Trump has no history of retaliating against perceived adversaries, he'll probably just let this pass."
Turning serious, he sees trouble ahead for Musk.
"For someone that rants so much about government pork, all of Elon's businesses are extremely dependent on government largesse," he said, "which makes him vulnerable."
People are also reading…
Trump and the federal government also stand to lose from a long-running dispute, but not as much as Musk.
Tesla robotaxis
The dispute came just a week before a planned test of Tesla's driverless taxis in Austin, Texas, a major event for the company because sales of its EVs are lagging in many markets, and Musk needs a win.
Trump could encourage federal safety regulators to step in at any sign of trouble for the robotaxis.
Even before Thursday's spat, the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration requested data on how Musk's driverless, autonomous taxis will perform in low-visibility conditions. That request followed an investigation last year into 2.4 million Teslas equipped with full self-driving software after several accidents, including one that killed a pedestrian.
A spokesman for NHTSA said the probe was ongoing and the agency "will take any necessary actions to protect road safety."
The Department of Justice also probed the safety of Tesla cars, but the status of that investigation is unclear. The DOJ did not respond immediately to requests for comment.
The promise of a self-driving future led by Tesla inspired shareholders to boost the stock by 50% in the weeks after Musk confirmed the Austin rollout. But on Thursday, the stock plunged more than 14% amid the Trump-Musk standoff. On Friday, it recovered a bit, bouncing back nearly 4%.
"Tesla's recent rise was almost entirely driven by robotaxi enthusiasm," Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein said. "Elon's feud with Trump could be a negative."
Carbon credits business
One often-overlooked but important part of Tesla's business that could take a hit is its sales of carbon credits.
Republican senators inserted new language into Trump's budget bill that would eliminate fines for gas-powered cars that fall short of fuel economy standards. Tesla has a thriving side business selling "regulatory credits" to other automakers to make up for their shortfalls.
Credit sales jumped by a third to $595 million in the first three months of the year even as total revenue slumped.
Reviving sales
Musk's foray into right-wing politics cost Tesla sales among the environmentally minded consumers who embraced electric cars and led to boycotts of Tesla showrooms.
Those buyers could come back if Musk's close association with Trump ends, but that's far from certain.
Meanwhile, one analyst speculated this year that Trump voters in so-called red counties could buy Teslas "in a meaningful way." He's now less hopeful.
"There are more questions than answers following Thursday developments," TD Cowen's Itay Michaeli wrote in his latest report, "and it's still too early to determine any lasting impacts."
Michaeli's stock target for Tesla earlier this year was $388. He since lowered it to $330. Tesla was trading Friday at $300.
Tesla did not respond to requests for comment.
SpaceX's work with NASA
Trump said Thursday that he could cut government contracts to Musk's rocket company, SpaceX, a massive threat to a company that received billions of federal dollars.
The privately held company that is reportedly worth $350 billion sends astronauts into space for NASA and has a contract to send a team from the space agency to the moon next year.
SpaceX is the only U.S. company capable of transporting crews to and from the space station, using its four-person Dragon capsules. The other alternative is politically dicey: depending wholly on Russia's Soyuz capsules.
Starlink could be affected
A subsidiary of SpaceX, the satellite internet company Starlink, appears to also have benefited from Musk's once-close relationship with the president.
Musk announced that Saudi Arabia approved Starlink for some services during a trip with Trump in the Middle East last month. The company also won a string of other recent deals in Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and elsewhere as Trump threatened tariffs.
It's not clear how much politics played a role, and how much is pure business.
Ad revival interrupted?
Big advertisers fled X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, after Musk welcomed all manner of conspiracy theories. They started to trickle back in recent months, possibly out of fear of a conservative backlash.
Musk called their decision to leave an "illegal boycott" and sued them, and the Trump administration recently weighed in with a Federal Trade Commission probe into possible coordination among them.
If Trump sours on X, "there's a risk that it could again become politically radioactive for major brands," said Sarah Kreps, a political scientist at Cornell University. She added, though, that an "exodus isn't obvious, and it would depend heavily on how the conflict escalates, how long it lasts and how it ends."
